Ukraine in the US campaign

HOWDY. Welcome to your Tuesday edition of Brussels Playbook, where we promise to limit ourselves to just one Bruce Springsteen pun as we react to this tweet from former EU climate chief Frans Timmermans wishing the American rocker a happy birthday: “Thank you for more than 40 years of inspiration, joy and comfort. And yeah, you’re still the only Boss I listen to.” 
Eyes emoji: We could interpret this as a knock at Timmermans’ former boss, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whose College he quit to run in the Dutch national election last year. But she hardly has reason to be offended, given the current state of power: Maybe he was born to run, but she apparently was born to win.
I’ll be back with you for Wednesday’s edition.
BORRELL’S GRIM WARNING: Russia is targeting energy infrastructure in an effort to freeze and demoralize Ukrainians this winter, Josep Borrell warned overnight. The EU’s top diplomat, who is in New York for the U.N. General Assembly, urged Kyiv’s Western allies to provide more air defense systems. “Both things have to be done at the same time,” Borrell told reporters, referring to helping Ukraine keep the heat on and to fend off Russia’s missiles. “It doesn’t make sense to provide with an electricity generator today if it has to be destroyed tomorrow,” he added.
Moscow’s helpers: “It’s clear that Russia has been receiving new arms, in particular missiles from Iran,” Borrell noted. “This is what we believe, even if Iranians deny it.”
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What Putin wants: “Russia wants to put Ukraine into the dark and the cold. The winter is coming, and following Russia attacks against energy targets, Ukraine energy production capacity has been reduced by two-thirds,” Borrell said. “Ukraine has to improve the military situation in order to go to the peace negotiations in a good way, in a position of strength,” he added.
ZELENSKYY’S VICTORY PLAN: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to make his case for his so-called victory plan at a specially convened U.N. Security Council meeting today, before heading to Washington to push for using long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. He’s also, indirectly, helping to make the case for Vice President Kamala Harris over ex-President Donald Trump with a key constituency.
“Wait a second, Playbook!” We know what you’re thinking: You’ve told us a million times that American voters don’t care about Europe or foreign policy. Broadly, that’s still true — but there’s a relatively small population that represents a major exception: Polish Americans in the country’s northern Rust Belt. They’re historically swing voters, but Democrats are making a Ukraine-specific pitch to get them on board.
Pennsylvania agitprop: So Zelenskyy was certainly doing Harris a serious favor by visiting the crucial state of Pennsylvania on Monday. He toured a munitions factory in Scranton (yep, the town where “The Office” is set) that produces weapons being used in Ukraine, creating a priceless photo opportunity. Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro no doubt hopes this clip of him signing artillery shells — as the Ukrainian president looks on approvingly — makes its way to the state’s 758,000 Polish Americans.
“Wait, haven’t I heard a figure like that before?” you ask. Probably. During this month’s debate with Trump, Harris said that had the U.S. and its allies not intervened to help Ukraine, Russia’s Vladimir Putin would already have taken Kyiv and Poland could be next. “Why don’t you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up,” she said, rounding up. There are 784,000 in Michigan and 481,000 in Wisconsin — key campaign stops for Harris last week, according to the AP. 
Staffing up: Harris recently hired Filip Jotevski as a “national diaspora and ethnic engagement director.” And a super PAC supporting Harris produced an ad posted on Facebook specifically targeting Polish voters.  
Trump also targets Poles: Trump was initially supposed to meet Polish President Andrzej Duda on Sunday in Pennsylvania, where they would attend the unveiling of a new memorial to the Polish anti-communist workers’ “Solidarity” movement. Trump ended up canceling. Duda’s office cited security concerns to Polish media. Yet Trump posted a congratulatory message to Polish Americans on his Truth Social platform, and Duda urged the diaspora to vote — without an endorsement: “Our political strength, your votes cast in American elections, decide the future of America but also the future of Poland,” he said, per TVP World.
And also the future of Ukraine: The possibility that Zelenskyy will meet Trump on this visit remains open (though Trump overnight said he thought the Ukrainian wants Harris to win the election). Kyiv is all too aware that the occupant of the White House matters. Hence the urgency of Zelenskyy’s appeal to a non-Polish American from Scranton, Pennsylvania: Joe Biden, whose last four months in office might represent Zelenskyy’s last best chance to enact his “victory plan.”
BACK TO UKRAINE’S ENERGY GRID: Jamie Dettmer explains why it’s fast becoming a focal point for European concerns about the rule of law in Ukraine, with Western allies fearing a political power grab that may imperil efforts to keep electricity flowing this winter.
ON THE UNGA SIDELINES: Last night, the Atlantic Council gave Italian PM Giorgia Meloni a Global Citizens Award at its annual black-tie affair that is a centerpiece event held during the United Nations General Assembly. At the Italian prime minister’s request, Musk was invited to introduce Meloni — a move that had sparked widespread dissent from the prestigious think tank’s staffers.
“Precious genius” meets “beautiful” Meloni: Musk, a maverick tech mogul who has riled regulators on both sides of the Atlantic and thrown his support behind Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, introduced Meloni in glowing terms — as “someone who is even more beautiful on the inside than she is on the outside,” my colleague Suzanne Lynch writes in to report.
He can’t resist: Musk also praised Meloni for being “authentic, honest and thoughtful,” before adding: “That can’t always be said about politicians.” The Italian leader, meanwhile, praised Musk’s “precious genius.” (Yes, really.)
Meloni’s speech … was a 15-minute espousal of her vision of Western conservatism. Using an op-ed by Anthony J. Constantini that appeared in POLITICO last year as a springboard, Meloni embarked on a passionate defense of the “values” of the West and “a civilization built over the centuries.” Patriotism, she said, “is the best response to declinism,” as she challenged the notion of the “inevitable decline of the West.” Musk, predictably, loved it, giving the PM a standing ovation.
EU SUES CHINA OVER DAIRY PROBE: While there’s some fretting over the future of the world order in New York, a different narrative is playing out in Geneva, with China and the EU reviving the relevance of the World Trade Organization, Koen Verhelst reports.
Milking the drama: On Monday, the EU launched a case against China’s anti-subsidy probe into European milk and cream — widely seen as Beijing’s retaliation for EU duties on made-in-China electric cars. Indeed, the dairy probe comes just days after Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao failed in his Brussels mission to avert EU duties.
Churning disputes, curdling relations: It’s the latest iteration in the “ongoing dispute between the EU and China,” said Francesca Ghiretti, a research leader on economic security at Rand Europe. 
Where there’s a will, there’s a whey: “The most interesting part,” Ghiretti added, is that this has all been going down at the WTO — an organization “that has long been labeled as de-facto dead.” (The WTO also just backed China’s request for a panel to determine whether the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act violates global trade rules.) 
Spilled milk: “For European cream and cheese, we’re once more a ‘hostage’ of a non-related trade dossier,” said the European Dairy Association’s Alexander Anton. Pro subscribers can read more in Morning Trade and Morning Agriculture.
GERMANY’S MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: Berlin has one last chance to overturn tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. But getting the required blocking majority of EU countries looks to be out of reach. POLITICO’s Giovanna Coi, Douglas Busvine and Koen explain the process.
WHERE TO SEND YOUR CVS, ROUND 2: Here’s another list of the top dogs who will be assisting the Commission nominees to prepare for their hearings (read the first round here, ICYMI), via Barbara Moens, Eddy Wax and the POLITICO team.
Jan Hoogmartens, who is set to become Belgium’s ambassador to the U.S., is sticking around a bit longer to lead Commissioner-designate Hadja Lahbib’s transition team. 
Johannes Van den Bossche will lead the transition team of designated agri boss Christophe Hansen. A decision on who will become Hansen’s chief of staff after the hearings has not been made.
Bernd Biervert, a German national who works as head of the clean energy transitions unit at the Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, will be the next head of Cabinet for Maroš Šefčovič, the commissioner-designate for trade and economic security. 
Tomas Anker Christensen, Denmark’s climate ambassador, will lead the transition team of Dan Jørgensen, who is set to be the EU’s next energy and housing commissioner. 
Anna Panagopoulou is set to lead the transition team of Commissioner-designate Apostolos Tzitzikostas. Panagopoulou is currently a director in the Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation.
Kevin Barrett will be head of the transition team for Commissioner-designate Michael McGrath. Barrett was McGrath’s special adviser when he was Ireland’s finance minister.
Alina-Stefania Ujupan will head the transition team for Romania’s Commissioner-designate Roxana Mînzatu. Ujupan has over 16 years of experience as a Commission civil servant and served in the Cabinets of former Agriculture Commissioner Dacian Cioloș, ex-Digital Economy Commissioner Mariya Gabriel and current Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager.
THE BOSSES HAVE SENT IN THEIR CVS: The European Parliament has received the necessary documents to start its confirmation process, said spokesperson Delphine Colard. The resumes of the commissioners-designate are here.
SPACE RACE: Andrius Kubilius, who is tipped to soon be running EU rocket and satellite policy, is heading straight into a budget scrap, writes Joshua Posaner.
UNEQUIVOCAL ON EQUALITY: Representatives of more than 50 civil society organizations working on equality issues signed a letter crying foul on Monday over Ursula von der Leyen’s move to merge the European Commission’s equality portfolio with crisis management. A protest march calling for an end to “segregation” and “exclusion” is planned for today.
**Psst… Did you know our fifth edition of POLITICO Competitive Europe Week is also happening online on October 1-3? From Industrial Policy to Tech & AI sessions, we’ve got you covered with this year’s unmissable 3-day event! Register to watch online!**
QATARGATE ON TRIAL: Top Belgian magistrates will decide today whether investigators operated lawfully during the Qatargate corruption scandal, Elisa Braun writes in to report.
Backgrounder: Back in December 2022, police launched a series of raids across Brussels, arrested key suspects and seized bags of cash, in one of the biggest corruption investigations ever to hit the EU. Investigators alleged suspects linked to the European Parliament accepted money or gifts in exchange for doing the bidding of Qatar, among others.
Case within the case: The main suspects’ lawyers managed to secure an internal investigation into how evidence was collected and whether authorities breached MEPs’ parliamentary immunity (the goal was to kill the case). The magistrates will also consider allegations of partiality by one of the investigative judges and a police officer during the investigation, and whether it was legal for secret services to get involved.
Death by a thousand delays: People familiar with the case, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the investigation has suffered so many setbacks, it seems unlikely it will end with a proper trial — particularly as the defense lawyers could deploy further delaying tactics. As one person put it: “Time is always on the side of the defense.”
KEEPING UP WITH KAILI: An eagle-eyed Eddy Wax flags that Eva Kaili, the Qatar-praising, cash-hoarding former Parliament vice president at the center of the scandal, has a new gig since her term as an MEP ended in July. “Co-Founder @Center 4 AI,” according to her LinkedIn profile, which lists her base as Milan. 
MIGRANT SHIPWRECK OFF GREECE: As the migration issue reemerges as the hot potato in European politics, another tragedy took place off the Greek island of Samos on Monday, Nektaria Stamouli reports. At least four people died when their boat sank; at least 30 migrants were believed to be on board the vessel. Five people have been rescued so far, among them a pregnant woman and a child.
HELSINKI WHISPERS: The Finnish political set is buzzing over a dishy new book from Swedish political reporters suggesting it was then-Prime Minister Sanna Marin, rather than President Sauli Niinistö, who pushed Finland’s NATO membership forward (and, by extension, Sweden’s). YLE has a quick summary in English.
WHAT THE NEW FRENCH GOVERNMENT MEANS FOR BRUSSELS: Giorgio Leali explains.
WHAT PUTIN’S UP TO: Hundreds of thousands of anti-war Russians left the country in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin is hunting down these ordinary people — and nobody seems to care, writes Lilia Yapparova, a reporter at Meduza, in this opinion piece for the New York Times.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Massive Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed at least 492 people on Monday, according to Lebanese health authorities. The Israeli military said it carried out strikes on around 1,600 targets across the country in a major new assault on Iran-backed Hezbollah.
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— General Affairs Council from 9:30 a.m. Arrivals from 8:15 a.m., press conference expected around 3 p.m. Agenda.
— U.N. General Assembly in New York. French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian PM Giorgia Meloni among those delivering addresses. Subscribe to Global Playbook for updates.
— EU High Representative Josep Borrell is in New York and delivers a keynote speech at the high-level U.N. Security Council meeting on Ukraine.
— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the opening remarks at the Global Renewables Summit and co-hosts an event on carbon pricing with Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
— Parliament President Roberta Metsola attends UNGA; meets Tony Blair, the executive chair of the Tony Blair Institute of Global Change at 4 p.m.; delivers the keynote speech “Citizen Social Responsibility: Bolstering Democracies through Civic Engagement,” organized by the Clinton Global Initiative at 7:30 p.m.
— Council President Charles Michel is in New York and gives a speech at event: “In defense of Democracy, fighting against extremism.”
— NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is in New York and will attend the transatlantic dinner hosted by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
— Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson is in Washington and meets with Merrick Garland, the U.S. attorney general, and U.S. Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas.
— Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is in New York; participates in the carbon markets roundtable at the Bloomberg Global Business Forum; meets with John Podesta, senior adviser to the U.S. president on international climate policy; and meets with Michael Bloomberg, U.N. special envoy on climate ambition.
— Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides is in New York, where she delivers a speech at the UNGA side event on “The IPC and antimicrobial stewardship: From policy to implementation at the point of care.”
—  Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski is in Skopje, North Macedonia; participates in a working meeting of agriculture ministers from southeastern Europe; meets Cvetan Tripunovski, North Macedonia’s agriculture minister.
WEATHER: High of 18C, chances of rain in the late afternoon and evening.
NEW JOB: After five years as the head of the EU diplomatic service’s European economic and trade office in Taiwan, Filip Grzegorzewski is back in Brussels as the head of the EEAS’ information integrity.
NEW TRAM LINE: The Brussels transit system opened a new tram route, Line 10, which begins at Uccle’s Churchill stop, passes through St. Gilles and the city center, then continues to Hôpital Militaire near Brussels’ northern edge in Neder-Over-Heembeek.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Ivan David; former MEP Miroslav Radačovský; Federation of European Publishers’ Quentin Deschandelliers; Amazon’s James Waterworth; Karim Antonio Lesina from Millicom; Qualcomm’s Audrey Scozzaro Ferrazzini; European Commission’s Clementine Mercedes Curtin. 
THANKS TO: Barbara Moens, Elisa Braun, Veronika Melkozerova, Koen Verhelst, Eddy Wax, Alessandro Ford, Suzanne Lynch, Nektaria Stamouli and Paul Dallison; Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Catherine Bouris.
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